Nigeria: Taking Advantage of Software Development Economic Dynamics

“To accomplish great things, we must not only act, but also dream, not only plan, but also believe”.

“We need to do more at this stage in order to move forward; and no stone should be left unturned”. Those were the words offered by former president Olusegun Obasanjo in his inaugural speech for the Nigerian Software Development Initiative (NSDI) in 2005. This statement, obviously, insinuated unfettered supports of the Federal Government to the development of the country’s software industry with principal objectives of diversifying the economy from its overreliance on crude oil proceeds and ensuring that the sector harnessed its potential of being the single largest contributor to the GDP within its first five years.

These lofty dreams remain as they were at the time of conception a decade ago. An everlasting lull had befallen the initiative that had several teeming undergraduate followers prepared themselves for challenges and opportunities that are, today, still in the offing. The writer was not an exception to the fanfare. As a fresh graduate of Computer Science in a Nigerian University with strong affinity for software development, and an investment of “unavailable capital” in the Art in faraway India the preceding year, I was sure jubilant, prepared and expectant of a promising future that especially guaranteed a quick  Return-On-Investment to one of my sponsors; now late. I still, vividly, recollect the grimaces of doubt about my expectations as I whined about them. But he was my brother. He could not have objected as I was dying to become a Solutions Developer.

This is 2015 – a decade after the dream about Nigeria’s dominance of the West African software market, if not Africa, was conceived. 10 years of unveiling the potential of an industry that could annually trap 0.05 per cent of the projected global software revenue. That seemingly meagre ratio, in 2005, amounted to about $1.3 billion of the $260 billion estimated global net worth. This purported revenue stream was particularly needed at the time for economic renaissance; consequent to the repayment of a huge sum of $12 billion (in lump) to the Paris Club in exchange for the remainder of our official debts of $30 billion, which was being written-off.

Fortunately, there was no better time to address the issues surrounding the atrocious debts, which had accumulated through fiscal rascality over many years before. 2005 was supposed to be the year of rejuvenation.  As the international price of, and desirability for, our “sweet” crude rose, a prudent government led by Obasanjo ensured that our foreign reserve accumulated. From about $5 billion in 1999, Nigeria built a financial fortress of staggering $35 billion that was capable of supporting imports for 9 consecutive months even without further accruals. Backed by a strong economic team and an astute Central Bank‘s Governor, Professor Charles Soludo, it was time to start investing profitably; both locally and internationally. Pragmatic and prudential fiscal discipline meant that Nigeria would cut its recurrent expenditures to make room for long-term investments in the macro-economy; starting with Infrastructural development.

As the world had passed over to the Information Technology age, though it continues to run on oil, the software development subsector offered Nigeria a window of minimal capital investment in exchange for the “highest” ROI and increased per capita income. The economic promises of a vibrant software industry in Nigeria cannot be overemphasized and are, indeed, humongous and realistically existent; especially with an average population of 173.6 million citizens. However, the horrendous dearth of skills aggravated by dysfunctional system of education dealt it the greatest blow. Issues of vested interests, rent seeking, lack of aptly justiciable system, among other banes would not be foci of this writing.

The global software industry today has grown exponentially as compared to its net worth in 2005 (when the FGN salivated over a projected annual $1.3 billion revenue; being only 0.05 percent of the total software market revenue).  In 2013, Gartner reported that the size of the worldwide software industry was $407.3 billion. If the 2005 records were correct, the differential amounted to a 36.16% rise in global revenue over a 10-year period. Had Nigeria been assiduous in its efforts towards actualizing her meagre “0.05-percent-of-global-revenue” dream, its probable current receipts from software shipments and sales would be slightly above $20 billion in 2014. This would have provided great succor to the economy and a good cushion for the value of the Naira; especially in the face of dwindling receipts from oil.

Let us dwell a little bit more on the monetary receipts accrued to the global software industry!

Of the $255 billion approximated revenue accrued to the Global 100 Software Leaders in 2012, not a cent accrued to Africa. Lest we talked about Nigeria. As a matter of verifiable fact, only thirteen (13) countries of the world were beneficiaries of this munificence.  As expected, the United States trapped 78% of the total accrual, with an approximated revenue of $200 billion. Other countries on the list were Russia, Germany, France, China, Norway, Japan, Sweden, Canada, Netherlands, Switzerland, Israel, and even, Brazil. Africa was, and still is, unranked!

Talking about the continent’s appetite for software products and services, government spending between 2010 and 2014 suggests increasing needs for automation of critical business processes. From public to private institutions, the potential appetencies of the continent is worth several billions of dollars. Proactive installations of Business Continuity infrastructures have seen Nigeria alone invested more than $500 million in technology in a single fiscal year. And as economies across the West African Coast begin to integrate (or at least plan to integrate), and their needs for data and Analytics deepen, substantial amount of budgets are being allocated to IT; with software procurement, deployment and maintenance taking lion’s shares. It is mere sneer, therefore, for Africa, and Nigeria in particular, to put such humongous investments into the consumption of software products & services with almost nothing being said or done about tapping and sustainably developing our local contents, capacities and capabilities for export.

To satisfy this gluttonous yet required appetite, Africa directly and substantially contributed, in payments, over $30 billion to the “party”. And this is being conservative. The implication of this travesty is that “whatever the monetary receipts from mineral and agricultural exports, Africa expends more in satisfaction of its appetite for technology/software solutions”. Summarily, Africa consumes more than it produces; and this is the reason for the gross deficits of its economies!

Coming back to Nigeria, the story is not any different. Majority of both public and private organizations in the country are powered by imported software solutions. While there are hundreds of software development companies in the country, 95% of them thrive on foreign partnerships in the provision of support services such as installation, customization, and training related to imported software packages. (Source: UNCTAD).Very few companies like SystemSpecs, have produced exportable software packages that have earned the country any foreign proceed. While the Computer Warehouse Group (CWG) is a successful brand across the Africa continent, starting from Lagos, Nigeria, it is majorly another outlet of foreign partners like Oracle and InfoSys Technologies.

Although Finnacle, a banking solution retailed by CWG, has helped to digitize and steer growth in the Nigerian Banking Industry, just like its counterparty T24 (retailed by INLAKS Computers for Temenos), Nigeria’s economy have had to repatriate huge investments, now probably measured in billion US dollars over the years, to the originating countries of these solutions. Due to adverse deficiencies in the local capacity/capability and the imperatives for topnotch technological need by sectors of the economy, especially banking, to commensurately accelerate their operational efficiency with those of their foreign counter parties, arguments could be made in support of software importation. However, such concession should be backed only with a long-term program that will ensure that local capacities and capabilities are fully nurtured within a stipulated period for adequate production of these solutions.

I strongly believe this is one of the goals of the Institute of Software Practitioners of Nigeria (ISPON) and the Nigeria Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA). Maybe the Nigeria Computer Society (NCS) too! Apart from NITDA, which is a government agency, most software companies in Nigeria are members of all the above-mentioned associations and more, whose creed is the liberation and liberalization of the software industry for socioeconomic growth and development. Unfortunately, and without any doubts, these members have hitherto paid mostly lip-services to the liberation movement. Their profitable Retail agreements with their foreign partners in a liberalized industry, the lack of efficacious regulation, monitoring, control and compliance mechanisms and unforeseen economic vagaries provide comfort havens and “genuine” excuses for these private promoters to continue to unabatedly import software solutions. In short, the ball always returns to government’s court!

As already opined, the software industry in Nigeria today is liberalized but not liberated. This means that while it is officially less cumbersome to enter into the industry and commence operations earnestly, there is general but grave apathy towards local contents, which drives participants into foreign spheres for imported software solutions. As such, the industry is stunted and shackled by the necessity for imported competition. Some of the attendant effects, which are under-listed, should bother a serious government more than the private sector players, who have maneuvered their paths to profitability in spite of damning socioeconomic decadence.

Loss of Revenue

In spite of the huge receipts from oil as reported in several National gazettes, though now dwindling, the State losses substantial amounts of its proceeds to the procurement of imported software products and services. In 2005, it was estimated at $900 million. With insufficient data on the performance of the industry, only God knows how much of revenue the country had lost in the last 10 years.

The Nigeria’s banking industry alone had invested more than a billion dollars in imported technologies. Yet, it is the same sector that had received the most of government subventions for the development of the macro economy. The same sector was bailed out by the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2009, under Mallam Sanusi Lamido Sanusi (the current Emir of Kano) with 620 billion Naira for sheer mismanagement of depositors’ funds. At the prevailing foreign exchange rate at the time, that was a $4 billion bailout.

Be that as it may, not all the imported solutions are cutting-edges that could not have been developed locally. But we choose to sendoff substantial parts of our income in a show-off race for Fitch ratings. Of all the investments (in billion dollars) that had accrued to foreign companies from the Nigeria’s software market, what percentage had been re-invested in the development of the industry? Either by the local vendors or their foreign partners? Had Infosys not developed Finnacle and Temenos not shipped T24, I wonder what Nigerian banks would run off?

Government, therefore, needs new policies to encourage or, if need be, force the hands of private players to invest substantial amount of their profits in the development of the local industry. As narrated recently by Professor Mariana Mazzucato of the University of Sussex in her article, “The Innovative State”, the U.S. government in 1925, allowed AT & T to retain its monopoly of the telephone system but required the company to reinvest its profit in research; a deal that led to the formation of Bell Labs.  Such approach is what the Nigerian government currently must implement to not only ensure that thriving local companies remain profitable but to finally liberate the industry from the shackles of its foreign competition, and increase the country propensity for prudence as regards expenditures on imported software products. This, in effect, will cut our financial outflows and income will rise!

Let INLAKS, CWG, SystemSpecs and the hundreds of supposed local software makers remain profitable but justiciably committed to reinvesting certain percentages of their profits into Education, Research & Development of the industry, with focus on the imported packages they retail.

Depreciation in the value of Naira

That local companies bridge the gaps between the technological deficiencies and needs of the economy is an advantage that is easily eroded by its adverse effect on the value of the legal tender currency – Naira. Two of the core mandates of the Central Bank of Nigeria are “To ensure monetary and price stability” and “To maintain external reserves to safeguard the international value of the legal tender currency”. These objectives are closely related to our balance of international trade. As a net importer of goods and services, the local economy practically depends on the viability of other economies that provide its supplies. And this is not limited to the software industry alone.

With unprecedented decadence in infrastructures such as power, industries are faced with herculean challenges to remain profitable amidst staunch competition posed by imported products. The software industry is not insulated from this economic menace. However, to sustain software imports valued at over a billion dollars annually would mean that the economy must make commensurate supply of its Naira in foreign exchange to meet this demand. As in economics, where heightened demand for a particular product or service raises its price, the value of the dollar as a commercial commodity rises against the naira as local companies source more naira in its exchange.

Starting with the software industry, government can begin to block this loophole by actively promoting and ensuring local production of essential software products/services. This cannot be isolated from the provision of other amenities like power, which is essentially important in setting up IT parks as highlighted in the plans of the Ministry of Communication Technology.

Transfer of Employment & Contagion Economic Effects

There is no arguing the fact that the reliance of one economy or country on the other for the provision of its essential needs is tantamount to the transfer of labour from the dependent economy to that, which is independent, on the one hand, and an unmitigated exposure to economic shocks that might befall the independent economy on the other.

Let us take for example that to keep programmers gainfully employed in a particular country, a banana republic must continue to buy from it. So, let us assume that the country is struck by severe economic crunches and suddenly, there is a need to make adjustments to its balance of trades. Otherwise, those highly paid programmers would be laid off. A solution option might be the need to increase its exports earnings. Implementation of this adjustment will automatically translate into upward variation in prices of goods and services that are exported.

As a result, the banana republic would be forced to pay more to its supplier on imported goods and services, which would, in turn, drive up the cost of running the local system. Prices would rise in the affected sector. And before that country lays off the first programmer, banana republic would have laid off more marketers to make room for the difference. In addition to the points on the “depreciation in the value of the Naira” above, more currencies of the republic would now begin to chase limited U.S. dollars as the official medium for international trades. As a result, the currency value of banana republic willl depreciate. This is the contagion economic effect and it should bother the government. Private sectors players might not be particularly worried since they might still remain profitable and competitively so, in spite of it. What they buy, is what they sell!

Reversing the scenario above to that in which the republic is self-reliant, it would not matter that a country is economically crushed. With loose ties augmented by local production, the effect could take a new dimension that is capable of springing innovation. The story of the mobile money in Kenya comes to mind but would be left for a different discourse.

To think that the U.S. proactively orchestrated for its own growth, but unknowingly precipitated the crises that hampered Nigeria’s earnings from oil in 2014, is indicative that we must begin to insulate our own economy, too. from global shocks. In 1976, the Morgantown Energy Research Centre and the Bureau of Mines launched the Eastern Shales Gas Project, which demonstrated how natural gas could be recovered from shale formations. Last year, after ample maturity of about 40 years of research, government’s investment yielded its first dividend – America had insulated itself from fluctuations in the global oil prices by being self-reliant through shale and its fracking. That was good news to majority Americans; but not to the government of Nigeria, whose biggest customer, U.S., just walked free!

Increase in the dearth of Skilled Resources

Skilled resources and sound educational system are two sides of the same developmental coin. One feeds the other and vice versa. A skilled industry stimulates as well as motivates the system of education for evolutionary excellence. Simultaneously, a sound and effective educational system replenishes as well as strengthens the skilled resources of a country. If one goes bad, in no time at all, the other, too, will. This makes the case for the need to focus on the educational sector in order to reinforce our decrepit IT workforce, and to stimulate a productive IT industry with equitable reward systems to keep the symbiotic cycle between the two flowing.

Unfortunately, if one word is to qualify the state of the educational system in Nigeria, it would be “Preposterous”. It is not surprising to find our economy in the bottom row of world standards. As such is the entire IT industry. At best, our potentials have been globally renowned. Sad news is, they remain potentials; never fully developed into productive capacities. In spite of the rebasing of the economy by the present government, nothing physically can be shown for the high GDP recorded on paper. That, too,is Preposterous! Let’s leave that for another day.

Discussing skilled human resources, it is the only single resource that any country, no matter how richly or poorly endowed, should crave for and earnestly develop without ceasing. Immediately after the Second World War, the economies of Germany and Japan were two of the mostly hit. Africa was physically untouched. Comparative analyses between Germany and Japan on the one hand, and Africa as a whole on the other hand conspicuously reveal yawning differentials between the 2 economies in favour of the former. The only disparity between the sides being the quality of human capital that existed therein. While Africa is richly blessed with natural resources, the dearth of quality human capital is its bane for economic growth.

The IT Industry, generally speaking, is one that is driven by quality, fast-paced and changing knowledge. It is therefore not surprising that the general macro-economic sectors in Nigeria suffer serious shortages in skilled manpower. With government daunting spending in education, not much could be expected. However, in the face of humungous debt profile tossed upon the nation by the current administration, incoming government will have to be innovative in its approach to fund education generally. To tackle this menace in the software education subsector, moves must be initiated to see private players adopt technology institutions in the bid to develop the industry. This could only be achieved, if the venture of adoption is made profitable in itself to parties that would be involved.

Let’s suppose that, through capital seeds in software development by the private sector, a University developed a robust Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) solution that could be adapted by numerous organizations in Nigeria for their operations. Apart from being cheaply produced by students, sponsors can thereafter commercialize the partnership for economic profitability. This way, more private institutions would form linkages with our schools, in a fashion that is akin to “taking the factories to schools”. We can, therefore, begin to tackle the paucity, while we also continually create linkages with the industries. This initiative, if properly harnessed is capable of transforming the country into a production hub like China a few years from now. But government, must take the lead by enacting the right policies, incentivizing both the private players and the student communities to be partakers, directly providing long-term funding for the initiative and by protecting both public and private investments in R&D by curtailing the national appetite for imported software solutions.

Too numerous are the adverse effects of a stagnated software development industry to any country with unprecedented need for automation and an inept population of over a hundred million potential problem solvers, who are empowered and motivated to proffer the much needed solutions. Other attendant issues are exposure to cyber-attacks and warfare, exposure to financial and economic espionage, extortion in software pricing among others. But with a few mentioned and discussed, and if Nigeria must survive the next four years, the incoming government must ensure that the economy is highly diversified for resilience against negative probabilities and particularly to reduce government expenditures through self-sustaining initiatives as expressed. The software industry, like other industries in the economy, offers this opportunity with a huge potential of the local market, which serves as a guarantee that any initiative, well-funded and well-managed, in support of it will not fail.

Buhari vs Jonathan: Beyond The Election By Professor Chukwuma Charles Soludo (Former Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria)

I need to preface this article with a few clarifications. I have taken a long sabbatical leave from partisan politics, and it is real fun watching the drama from the balcony.  Having had my own share of public service (I do not need a job from government), I now devote my time and energy in pursuit of other passions, especially abroad. A few days ago, I read an article in Thisday entitled “Where is Charles Soludo?”, and my answer is that I am still there, only that I have been too busy with extensive international travels to participate in or comment on our national politics and economy. Former Central Bank Governor, Charles Soludo But I occasionally follow events at home. Since the survival and prosperity of Nigeria are at stake, the least some of us (albeit, non-partisan) must do is to engage in public debate. As the elections approach, I owe a duty to share some of my concerns.

In September 2010, I wrote a piece entitled “2011 Elections: Let the Real Debate Begin” and published by Thisday. I understand the Federal Executive Council discussed it, and the Minister of Information rained personal attacks on me during the press briefing. I noted more than six newspaper editorials in support of the issues we raised. Beside other issues we raised, our main thesis was that the macro economy was dangerously adrift, with little self-insurance mechanisms (and a prediction that if oil prices fell below $40, many state governments would not be able to pay salaries). I gave a subtle hint at easy money and exchange rate depreciations because I did not want to panic the market with a strong statement. Sadly, on the eve of the next elections, literally everything we hinted at has happened.  Part of my motivation for this article is that five years after, the real debate is still not happening.

The presidential election next month will be won by either Buhari or Jonathan. For either, it is likely to be a pyrrhic victory. None of them will be able to deliver on the fantastic promises being made on the economy, and if oil prices remain below $60, I see very difficult months ahead, with possible heady collisions with labour, civil society, and indeed the citizenry. To be sure, the presidential election will not be decided by the quality of ‘issues’ or promises canvassed by the candidates. The debates won’t also change much (except if there is a major gaffe by either candidate like Tofa did in the debate with Abiola). My take is that more than 95% of the likely voters have pretty much made up their minds based largely on other considerations. A few of us remain undecided. During my brief visit to Nigeria, I watched some of the campaign rallies on television. The tragedy of the current electioneering campaigns is that both parties are missing the golden opportunity to sensitize the citizenry about the enormous challenges ahead and hence mobilize them for the inevitable sacrifices they would be called upon to make soon. Each is promising an El-Dorado.

Let me admit that the two main parties talk around the major development challenges—corruption, insecurity, economy (unemployment/poverty, power, infrastructure, etc) health, education, etc. However, it is my considered view that none of them has any credible agenda to deal with the issues, especially within the context of the evolving global economy and Nigeria’s broken public finance. The UK Conservative Party’s manifesto for the last election proudly announced that all its programmes were fully costed and were therefore implementable. Neither APC nor PDP can make a similar claim.  A plan without the dollar or Naira signs to it is nothing but a wish-list. They are not telling us how much each of their promises will cost and where they will get the money. None talks about the broken or near bankrupt public finance and the strategy to fix it. 

In response to the question of where the money will come from, I heard one of the politicians say that the problem of Nigeria was not money but the management of resources. This is half-truth. The problem is both. No matter how efficient a father (with a monthly salary of N50,000) is at managing the family resources, I cannot see how he could deliver on a promise to buy a brand new Peugeot 406 for each of his three children in a year.  Even with all the loopholes and waste closed, with increased efficiency per dollar spent, there is still a binding budget constraint. To deliver an efficient national transport infrastructure alone will still cost tens of billions of dollars per annum even by corruption-free, cost-effective means.  Did I hear that APC promises a welfare system that will pay between N5,000 and N10,000 per month to the poorest 25 million Nigerians?  Just this programme alone will cost between N1.5 and N3 trillion per annum. Add to this the cost of free primary education plus free meal (to be funded by the federal budget or would it force non-APC state governments to implement the same?), plus some millions of public housing, etc.  

I have tried to cost some of the promises by both the APC and the PDP, given alternative scenarios for public finance and the numbers don’t add up.  Nigerians would be glad to know how both parties would fund their programmes.  Do they intend to accentuate the huge public debt, or raise taxes on the soon to-be-beleaguered private businesses, or massively devalue the naira to rake in baskets of naira from the dwindling oil revenue, or embark on huge fiscal retrenchment with the sack of labour and abandonment of projects, and which areas of waste do they intend to close and how much do they estimate to rake in from them, etc?  I remember that Chief Obafemi Awolowo was asked similar questions in 1978 and 1979 about his promises of free education and free medical services. Even as a teenager, I was impressed by how he reeled out  figures about the amounts he would save from various ‘waste’ including the tea/coffee served in government offices. The point is that at least he did his homework and had his numbers and I give credit to his team. Some 36 years later, the quality of political debate and discourse seems to border on the pedestrian. From the quality of its team, I did not expect much from the current government, but I must confess that I expected APC as a party aspiring to take over from PDP to come up with a knock-out punch. Evidently, from what we have read from the various versions of its manifesto as well as the depth of promises being made, it does not seem that it has a better offer.

Let me digress a bit to refresh our memory on where we are, and thus provide the context in which to evaluate the promises being made to us. Recall that the key word of the 2015 budget is ‘austerity’.  Austerity? This is just within a few months of the fall in oil prices. History repeats itself in a very cruel way, as this was exactly what happened under the Shehu Shagari administration. Under the Shagari government, oil price reached its highest in 1980/81. During the same period, Nigeria ratcheted up its consumption and all tiers of government were in competition as to which would out-borrow the other. Huge public debt was the consequence. When oil prices crashed in early 1982, the National Assembly then passed the Economic Stabilization (Austerity Measures) Act in one day--- going through the first, second, and third readings the same day.  The austerity measures included the rationing of ‘essential commodities’ and most states owed salary arrears. Corruption was said to be pervasive, and as Sani Abacha said in that famous coup speech, ‘unemployment has reached unacceptable proportions and our hospitals have become mere consulting clinics’.  General Muhammadu Buhari/Tunde Idiagbon regime made the fight against corruption and restoration of discipline the cardinal point of their administration which lasted for 20 months. I am not sure they had a credible plan to get the economy out of the doldrums (although it must be admitted that poverty incidence in Nigeria as of 1985 when they left office was a just46%--- according to the Federal Office of Statistics).

We have come full circle. If the experience under Shagari could be excused as an unexpected shock, what Nigeria is going through now is a consequence of our deliberate wrong choices.  We have always known that the unprecedented oil boom (in both price and quantity—despite oil theft) of the last six years is temporary but the government chose to treat it as a permanent shock. The parallels with the Shagari regime are troubling. First, at the time of oil boom, Nigeria again went on a consumption spree such that the budgets of the last five years can best be described as ‘consumption budgets’, with new borrowing by the federal government exceeding the actual expenditure on critical infrastructure. Second, not one penny was added to the stock of foreign reserves at a period Nigeria earned hundreds of billions from oil. For comparisons, President Obasanjo met about $5 billion in foreign reserves, and the average monthly oil price for the 72 months he was in office was $38, and yet he left $43 billion in foreign reserves after paying $12 billion to write-off Nigeria’s external debt. In the last five years, the average monthly oil price has been over $100, and the quantity also higher but our foreign reserves have been declining and exchange rate depreciating.
I note that when I assumed office as Governor of CBN, the stock of foreign reserves was $10 billion. The average monthly oil price during my 60 months in office was $59, but foreign reserve reached the all-time peak of $62 billion (and despite paying $12 billion for external debt, and losing over $15 billion during the unprecedented global financial and economic crisis) I left behind $45 billion.  Recall also that our exchange rate continuously appreciated during this period and was at N117 to the dollar before the global crisis and we deliberately allowed it to depreciate in order to preserve our reserves.  My calculation is that if the economy was better managed, our foreign reserves should have been between $102 --$118 billion and exchange rate around N112 before the fall in oil prices. As of now, the reserves should be around $90 billion and exchange rate no higher than N125 per dollar.  

Third, the rate of public debt accumulation at a time of unprecedented boom had no parallel in the world.  While the Obasanjo administration bought and enlarged the policy space for Nigeria, the current government has sold and constricted it.  What debt relief did for Nigeria was to liberate Nigerian policymakers from the intrusive conditionalities of the creditors and thereby truly allowing Nigeria independence in its public policy. How have we used the independence?  Through our own choices, we have yet again tied the hands of future policymakers. This time, the debt is not necessarily to foreign creditor institutions/governments which are organized under the Paris club but largely to private agents which is even more volatile. We call it domestic debt. But if one carefully unpacks the bond portfolio, what percentage of it is held by foreign private agents? And I understand the Government had removed the speed bumps we kept to slow the speed of capital flight, and someone is sweating to explain the gyrations in foreign reserves. I am just smiling! 

In sum, the mismanagement of our economy has brought us once more to the brink. Government officials rely on the artificial construct of debt to GDP ratio to tell us we can borrow as much as we want.  That is nonsense, especially for an economy with a mono but highly volatile source of revenue and forex earnings. The chicken will soon come home to roost.  Today, the combined domestic and external debt of the Federal Government is in excess of $40 billion. Add to this the fact that abandoned capital projects littered all over the country amount to over $50 billion.  No word yet on other huge contingent liabilities.  If oil prices continue to fall, I bet that Nigeria will soon have a heavy debt burden even with low debt to GDP ratio. Furthermore, given the current and capital account regime, it is evident that Nigeria does not have enough foreign reserves to adequately cover for imports plus short term liabilities.  In essence, we are approaching the classic of what the Shagari government faced, and no wonder the hasty introduction of ‘austerity measures’ again.

Fourth, poverty incidence and unemployment are also simultaneously at all-time high levels. According to the NBS, poverty incidence grew to 69%  in 2010 and projected to be 71% in 2011, with unemployment at 24%.  This is the worst record in Nigeria’s history, and the paradox is that this happened during the unprecedented oil boom.

One theme I picked up listening to the campaign rallies as well as to some of the propagandists is the confusion about measuring government “performance”. Most people seem to confuse ‘inputs’, or ‘processes’ with output. Earlier this month, I had a dinner with a group of friends (14 of us) and we were chit-chatting about Nigeria. One of us, an associate of President Jonathan veered off to repeat a propaganda mantra that Jonathan had outperformed his predecessors. He also reminded us that Jonathan re-based the GDP and that Nigeria is now the biggest economy in Africa; etc.  It was fun listening to the response by others. In sum, the group agreed that the President had ‘outperformed’ his predecessors except that it is in reverse order.  First, my friend was educated that re-basing the GDP is no achievement: it is a routine statistical exercise, and depending on the base year that you choose, you get a different GDP figure.  Re-basing the GDP has nothing to do with government policy. Besides, as naira-dollar exchange rate continues to depreciate, the GDP in current dollars will also shrink considerably soon. 

We were reminded of Jonathan’s agricultural ‘revolution’. But someone cut in and noted that for all the propaganda, the growth rate of the agricultural sector in the last five years still remains far below the performance under Obasanjo. One of us reminded him that no other president had presided over the slaughter of about 15,000 people by insurgents in a peacetime; no other president earned up to 50% of the amount of resources the current government earned from oil and yet with very little outcomes; no other president had the rate of borrowing; none had significant forex earnings and yet did not add one penny to foreign reserves but losing international reserves at a time of boom; no other president had a depreciating exchange rate at a time of export boom; at no time in Nigeria’s history has poverty reached 71% (even under Abacha, it was 67 -70%); and under no other president did unemployment reach 24%. Surely, these are unprecedented records and he surely ‘outperformed’ his predecessors!  What a satire! 

One of those present took the satire to some level by comparing Jonathan to the ‘performance’ of the former Governor of Anambra, Peter Obi.  He noted that while Obi gloated about ‘savings’, there is no signature project to remember his regime except that his regime took the first position among all states in Nigeria in the democratization of poverty---- mass impoverishment of the people of Anambra. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, poverty rose under his watch in Anambra from 20% in 2004 (lowest in Nigeria then) to 68% in 2010 (a 238% deterioration!).  Our friend likened it to a father who had no idea of what to do with his resources and was celebrating his fat bank account while his children were dying of kwashiorkor.  He pointed out that since it is the likes of Peter Obi who are the advisers to Jonathan on how to manage the economy (thereby confusing micromanagement which you do as a trader with macro governance) it is little wonder that poverty is fast becoming another name for Nigeria. It was a very hilarious evening. 

My advice to President Jonathan and his handlers is to stop wasting their time trying to campaign on his job record. Those who have decided to vote for him will not do so because he has taken Nigeria to the moon. His record on the economy is a clear ‘F’ grade. As one reviews the laundry list of micro interventions the government calls its achievements, one wonders whether such list is all that the government could deliver with an unprecedented oil boom and an unprecedented public debt accumulation. I can clearly see why reasonable people are worried.  Everywhere else in the world, government performance on the economy is measured by some outcome variables such as: income (GDP growth rate), stability of prices (inflation and exchange rate), unemployment rate, poverty rate, etc. On all these scores, this government has performed worse than its immediate predecessor--- Obasanjo regime. If we appropriately adjust for oil income and debt, then this government is the worst in our history on the economy. All statistics are from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Despite presiding over the biggest oil boom in our history, it has not added one percentage point to the growth rate of GDP compared to the Obasanjo regime especially the 2003- 07 period.  Obasanjo met GDP growth rate at 2% but averaged 7% within 2003- 07. The current government has been stuck at 6% despite an unprecedented oil boom.  Income (GDP) growth has actually performed worse, and poverty escalated. This is the only government in our history where rapidly increasing government expenditure was associated with increasing poverty. The director general of NBS stated in his written press conference address in 2011 that about 112 million Nigerians were living in poverty. Is this the record to defend?  Obama had a tough time in his re-election in 2012 because unemployment reached 8%. Here, unemployment is at a record 24% and poverty at an all-time 71% but people are prancing around, gloating about ‘performance’. As I write, the Naira exchange rate to the dollar is $210 at the parallel market. What a historic performance! Please save your breathe and save us the embarrassment. The President promised Nigeria nothing in the last election and we did not get value for money. He should this time around present us with his plan for the future, and focus on how he would redeem himself in the second term—if he wins!

Sadly the government’s economic team is very weak, dominated by self-interested and self-conflicted group of traders and businessmen, and so-called economic team meetings have been nothing but showbiz time. The very people government exists to regulate have seized the levers of government as policymakers and most government institutions have largely been “privatized” to them. Mention any major government department or agency and someone will tell you whom it has been ‘allocated’ to, and the person subsequently nominates his minion to occupy the seat.  What do you then expect? The economy seems to be on auto pilot, with confusion as to who is in charge, and government largely as a constraint. There are no big ideas, and it is difficult to see where economic policy is headed to. My thesis is that the Nigerian economy, if properly managed, should have been growing at an annual rate of about 12% given the oil boom, and poverty and unemployment should have fallen dramatically over the last five years. This is topic for another day.
So far, the Government’s response to the self-inflicted crisis is, at best, laughable. They blame external shocks as if we did not expect them and say nothing about the terrible policy choices they made. The National Assembly had described the 2015 budget as unrealistic. The fiscal adjustments proposed in the 2015 budget simply play to the gallery and just to pander to our emotions. For a $540 billion economy, the so-called luxury tax amounts to zero per cent of GDP.  If the current trend continues, private businesses will come under a heavy crunch soon. Having put economics on its head during the boom time, the Government now proposes to increase taxes during a prospective downturn and impose austerity measures. 

Unbelievable!

Fortuitously, just as he succeeded Shagari when Nigeria faced similar situations, Buhari is once more seeking to lead Nigeria. But times have changed, and Nigeria is largely different. First, this is a democracy and dealing with corruption must happen within the ambit of the rule of law and due process. Getting things done in a democracy requires complicated bargaining, especially where the legislature, labour, the media, and civil society have become strong and entrenched.   Second, the size, structure and institutions of the economy have fundamentally altered. The market economy, especially the capital market and foreign exchange market, impose binding constraints and discipline on any regime.   Third, dealing with most of the other issues--- insecurity, unemployment/poverty, infrastructure, health, education, etc, require increased, smarter, and more efficient spending. Increased spending when the economy is on the reverse gear? 

If oil prices remain between 40- 60 dollars over the next two years, the current policy regime guarantees that foreign reserves will continue the precipitous depletion with the attendant exchange rate depreciation, as well as a probable unsustainable escalation in debt accumulation, fiscal retrenchment or taxing the private sector with vengeance. The scenario does not look pretty. The poor choices made by the current government have mortgaged the future, and the next government would have little room to manoeuvre and would inevitably undertake drastic but painful structural adjustments. Nigerians loathe the term ‘structural adjustment’. With falling real wages and depreciating currency, I can see any belated attempt  by the government to deal with the bloated public sector pitching it against a feisty labour.  I worry about regime stability in the coming months, and I do not envy the next team. 

The seeming crisis is not destiny; it is self-imposed. However, we must see it as an opportunity to be seized to fundamentally restructure Nigeria’s political economy, including its fiscal federalism and mineral rights. The current system guarantees cycles of consumption loop and I cannot see sustainable long term prosperity without major systemic overhaul. The proposals at the national conference merely tinker at the margins. In totality, the outcome of the national conference is to do more of the same, with minor amendments on the system of sharing and consumption rather than a fundamental overhaul of the system for productivity and prosperity. President Jonathan promises to implement the report of the national conference if he wins. I commend him for at least offering ‘something’, albeit, marginal in my view. I have not heard anything from the APC or Buhari regarding the national conference report or what kind of federalism they envisage for Nigeria.

In Nigeria’s recent history, two examples under the military and civilian governments demonstrate that where the political will exists, Nigeria has the capacity to overcome severe challenges.  The first was under President Babangida. Not many Nigerians appreciate that given the near bankrupt state of Nigeria’s finances and requirements for debt resolution under the Paris Club, the country had little choice but to undertake the painful structural adjustment programme (SAP).  I want to state for the record that the foundation for the current market economy we operate in Nigeria was laid by that regime (liberalization of markets including market determined exchange rate, private sector-led economy including licensing of private banks and insurance, de-regulation, privatization of public enterprises under TCPC, etc). Just abolishing the import licensing regime was a fundamental policy revolution. Despite the criticisms, these policy thrusts have remained the pillars of our deepening market economy, and the economy recovered from almost negative growth rate to average 5.5% during the regime and poverty incidence at 42% in 1992.

Under our democratic experience, President Obasanjo inherited a bankrupt economy (with the lost decade of the 1990’s GDP growth rate of 2.2% and hence zero per capita income growth for the decade). His regime consolidated and deepened the market economy structures (consolidation of the banking system which is powering the emergence of a new but truly private sector-led economy and simultaneously led to a new awareness and boom in the capital market; telecommunications revolution; new pension regime; debt relief which won for Nigeria policy independence from the World Bank and Paris Club; deepening of de-regulation and  privatization including the unbundling of NEPA under PHCN for privatization; agricultural revolution that saw yearly growth rate of over 6% and remains unsurpassed ever since; sound monetary and fiscal policy and growing foreign reserves that gave confidence to investors; establishment of the Africa Finance Corporation which is leading infrastructure finance in Africa; backward integration policy that saw the establishment and growth of Dangote cement and others; established ICPC and EFCC to fight corruption, etc). The economy roared to average yearly growth of 7% between 2003 and 2007 (although average monthly oil price under his regime was $38), and poverty dropped from estimated 70% in1999 to 54% in 2004.   Obasanjo was his own coordinating minister of the economy and chairman of the economic management team--- which he chaired for 90 minutes every week. I met with him daily.  In other words, he did not outsource economic management. 

We expected that the next government after Obasanjo would take the economy to the next level.  So far, we have had two great slogans: the 7-point agenda and currently, the transformation agenda. They remain empty slogans without content or direction.

Let me suggest that the fundamental challenge for the next government on the economy can be framed around the goal of creating twelve million jobs over the next four years to have a dent on unemployment and poverty. The challenge is to craft a development agenda to deliver this within the context of broken public finance, and an economy in which painful structural adjustments will be inevitable if current trends in oil prices continue. Most other programmes on corruption, security, power, infrastructure, etc, are expected to be instruments to achieve this objective.

So far, neither the APC nor the PDP has a credible programme for employment and poverty reduction. The APC promises to create 20,000 jobs per state in the first year, totalling a mere 720,000 jobs.  This sounds like a quota system and for a country where the new entrants into the labour market per annum exceed two million.  If it was intended as a joke, APC must please get serious.  On the other hand, President Jonathan targets two million jobs per annum but his strategy for doing so is a Job Board--- another committee of sort.  Sorry, Mr. President, a Job Board is not a strategy. The principal job Nigerians hired you to do for them is to create jobs for them too. You cannot outsource that job, Sir.  Creating 3 million jobs per annum under the unfolding crisis would task our creativity and audacity to the limits. 

I heard one politician argue that once we fix power, private sector would create jobs. Not necessarily! Well, this government claims to have added 1,700MW to the national grid and yet unemployment soars. Ask Greece, Spain, etc with power and infrastructure and yet with high unemployment. Structural dislocations play a key role. For example, currently in Nigeria, it is estimated that more than 60% of graduates of our educational system are unemployable. You can understand why many of us are amused when the government celebrates that it has established twelve more glorified secondary schools as universities. I thought they would have told us how many Nigerian universities made it in the league of the best 200 universities in the world. That would have been an achievement.  Surely, creating millions of jobs in this economy would, among other things, require ‘new money’ and extraordinary system of coordination among the three tiers of government plus the private sector. Unfortunately, from what I read, the CBN is largely likely to be asleep at this time the country needs the most revolutionary finance. This is a topic for another day. Only the President can lead this effort. Moreover, we are waiting for the two parties/candidates to spell out HOW they will create jobs, whether it is the 20,000 jobs per state by APC or 2 million per annum by President Jonathan.  Let us know how you arrived at the figures. Whichever of the two that is declared winner will have his job cut out for him, and I expect him to declare a national emergency on job creation. 

Surprisingly, none of the parties/candidates has any grand vision about African economic integration, led by Nigeria. There is no programme on how to make the naira the de facto currency of ECOWAS or the international financial centre that can attract more than $100 billion per annum. Where is the strategy for orchestrating the revolutionary finance to power the economy during this downturn? For President Jonathan, I find it shocking that the most important initiative of his government to secure the future of the economy by Nigeria refusing to sign the ruinous Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the European Union is not even being mentioned.  President Obasanjo saved Nigeria from the potential ruin of an ECOWAS single currency while to his credit Jonathan safeguarded our industrial sector/economy by refusing to sign the EPA. Or does the government not understand the import of that?  It will be interesting to know the APC’s strategy for exploiting strategic alliances within Africa, China, and the world for Nigeria’s prosperity. 

If Buhari wins, he will ride on the populist wind for “change”.  Most people I have spoken to who have decided to vote for Buhari do not necessarily know the specifics of what he would offer or how Nigeria would be different under him. I asked my driver, Usman, whom he would vote for President. He responded: “If they no rig the election, na Buhari everybody go vote for”. I asked him why, and his next response sums it: “The man dey honest. In short, people just want to see another face for that villa”.  But if he wins, the honeymoon will be brief and the pressure will be immense to magically deliver a ‘new Nigeria’ with no corruption, no boko haram or insecurity, jobs for everyone, no poverty, infrastructure and power in abundance, etc.  As a first point, Buhari and his team must realize that they do not yet have a coherent, credible agenda that is consistent with the fundamentals of the economy currently. The APC manifesto contains some good principles and wish-lists, but as a blue print for Nigeria’s security and prosperity, it is largely hollow. The numbers do not add up. Thus, his first job is to present a credible development agenda to Nigerians.

The second key challenge for Buhari and his team will be to transit and transform from a group of what I largely refer to as aggrieved people’s congregation to build a true political party with a soul from the patchwork of political associations. It is surely easier to oppose than to govern.  This should not worry us much. After all, even the PDP which has been in power for 16 years is still an assembly of people held together by what I refer to as dining table politics. I am not sure how many members can tell you what their party stands for or its mission and vision for Nigeria. The third but more difficult agenda is cobbling together a truly ‘progressive team’ that will begin to pick the pieces.  The lesson of history is that the best leaders have been the ones who went beyond their narrow provincial enclaves to recruit talents and mobilize capacities for national transformation.  In Nigeria’s history, the two presidents who made the most fundamental transformation of the economy, Babangida and Obasanjo, were exceptional in the quality of the teams they put together. I therefore pray that Buhari will be magnanimous in victory – if he wins—to put together a ‘team Nigeria’ for the rescue mission.

If Jonathan wins, then God must have been magnanimous to give him a second chance to redeem himself. Most people I know who support Jonathan do so either out of self-interest or fear of the unknown.  As a friend summed it: the devil you know is better than the angel you do not know.  One person assured me that we would see a ‘different Jonathan’ if he wins as he has been rattled by the harsh judgment of history on his presidency so far.  I just pray that he is right.  In that case, I would just draw the President’s attention to two issues:

First, beside the coterie of clowns who literally make a living with the sing-song of transformation agenda, President Jonathan must know that it remains an empty slogan. His greatest challenge is how to save himself from the stranglehold of his largely provincial palace jesters who tell him he has done better than God, and seek out ‘enemies’ and friends who can help him write his name in history. Propaganda won’t do it. 

Second, Jonathan must claw back his powers as President of Nigeria. He largely outsourced them, and must now roll his sleeves for a new beginning. I take liberty to tell you this brutal truth: if you are not re-elected, there is little to remember your regime after the next few years.  On 7th January 2004, I made a special presentation to an expanded economic management team to set agenda for the new year (as chief economic adviser). The focus of my presentation was for us to identify seven iroko trees that would be the flagship markers for the administration as well as how to finance them. I use the same framework to evaluate your administration. What I say to you, Mr. President, is that your record of performance so far is like a farmland filled with grasses. Yes, they are many but there is no tree, let alone any iroko tree, that stands out.  Think about this. The beginning of wisdom for every President in his second term is to admit that he is racing against time to cement his legacy. So far, your report card is not looking great.  You need a team of big and bold thinkers, as well as with excellent execution capacity.  So far, it is not working!

Under the executive presidential system, Nigerians elected you to manage their economy. You cannot outsource that job. Our constitution envisages a federal coordination of the economy, and that function is performed by the National Economic Council (NEC) with Vice-President as chairman. Indeed, the constitution and other laws of Nigeria envisage the office of the VP as the coordinator on the economy. All major economic institutions of the federal government are, by law, chaired by the Vice-President including the national planning (see functions of the national planning commission as coordinator of federal government economic and development programmes), debt management office, National Council on Privatization, etc. As chairman of National Planning (with Ministers of Finance, Agriculture, CBN governor, etc as members), the VP oversees the federal planning and coordination. Then the Constitution mandates the VP as representative of the federal government to chair the NEC, with only CBN governor and state governors as members—to coordinate national economy between federal and states. No minister is a member of NEC. Many people do not understand the logic of the design of our constitution and the role of the VP.  Of course, the buck stops on the desk of Mr. President. Only the President and VP have our mandate to govern us. Every other person is an adviser/assistant. I bet that you will only appreciate this article AFTER you leave office. Now that you are in power, truth will only hurt!  Be assured that those of us who are prepared to die for Nigeria will never spare you or anyone else this bitter truth.

Nigeria must survive and prosper beyond Buhari or Jonathan!

Leave Jonathan! Vote PDP Out!

Among all the political argots and analyses that have littered our media spaces in the last few weeks, following the presidential race declarations of the “biggest” figures in the country, very little have left me really impressed. I have read well-written articles that are ladened with highly eloquent expressions that tickled my grammatical fancy – and not more. However, the substance of many of these proses always fall short of quality and reasonable analysis of our political conditions and  feasible juxtapositions as compared to the beautiful embroidery of knitted expressions in which these deficient thoughts are woven. A situation that have left me with a doubtful question about the quality of our reflection on our dilapidating future – and to which we have a collective responsibility to save!

From one article to the other, it is as though the country has been shared amongst the biggest political parties – the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) and its strongest opposition, All Progressive Congress (APC). I have no doubt it has; along some imaginary borderlines. The crossfires between the “pongos” of these conflicting political country-sides range from exaggerations to prevarications. From aggrandizement to malignments. There are no in-betweens in the scale of revilements. Everyone goes for the jugular. Kill him! Kill him!! This is what I hear if this were to be a warring situation.

This is bad enough for an “affluent” nation of indigents who each feast below one US dollar – a hundred and eighty five naira - per day! It is made worse that, in our hunger, we are unable to figure a rallying point for the development of our social and economic courses. Rather, in this bottomless perdition, we – the indigents, inadvertently and hurriedly too, dig further our hells, building a ground of rubbles for the elitist politicians while we remain buried beneath them with our prejudice and in excruciating agonies.

I still wonder how it has become impossible for us to see that the next electoral race is not between PDP and APC. Nor amongst other political parties. It is neither a battle between the North and the South nor a scrap between Christians and Muslims. When these elections are over, and the spoils seemed to have been totally shared amongst the “victors”, we would realise that, ultimately, we have been defeated again – by our own hands. We would have delivered ourselves, once more and de jure, to the slave camps of our heinous masters. The only difference this time, may be to another class of oppressors; fairer or even worse.

While I have no doubts that this is the “best” we would get this year – 2015 - as we have not so many options of impeccable politicians to choose from, it is important to toss into the public domain, the rational arguments rather than sentiments, that I suppose would augur fairly for the country, if truly, first of all, we genuinely seek a steadying end to our national and collective afflictions.  I have based my theory on an assumption, which I hold to be true following a close examination of our current situation. I might be wrong. Though I hope not!

I assume that a very high percentage of our total number of politicians are out for personal enrichment through unbridled thieving and looting of our commonwealth using the elective offices we electorally bestow on them and its associated powers. Unfortunately, these grossly corrupt individuals form the pool from which we must elect our wealth managers. And we are, thus, trapped in a “cul de sac” to choose either “this devil” or “that devil”. It would not matter therefore, on whose side one is. It is an “all-devil” contest – the reason the barrage of smears hurled across the borderlines by the protagonists of all sides count for progressive nothingness.

While I do not sturdily conclude that there are no goods amongst our present crop of politicians, the asphyxiating poignant odour that emit from our body politic due to the preponderance of iniquitous tendencies of majority of its players, do not statistically justify the existence of any angel-like figure. As such, they are difficult to sift at this stage of our incipient democracy.  At best, we believe that all our “saints” would remain “holy” so, until they have had a taste of the forbidden fruits hanging in power corridors. Safer it is, therefore, for our political and electoral psychology to assume that at the present moment, “there are no saints”. 

The consequent “BIG QUESTION”, hence, is “how do will choose amongst the offered devils?”

Like in economics, where competition is defined as “the effort of two or more parties acting independently to secure the business of a third party by offering the most favourable terms” (Meriam-Webster), I opine that political competition could as well be defined as “the effort of two or more political groups acting independently to secure the electoral supports of majority of the electorates by offering the most favourable socio-economic terms”. 

Sequel to above, I have no doubt that the socio-economic benefits of good governance would remain elusive to Nigerians due to the lack of political competitiveness at the very centre of power – the Presidency. Disregard political competition as the mere existence of numerous political parties. It is not. The political landscape in Nigeria is so steep and lopsided it benefits, majorly, the political party that grabbed “Aso Rock” in 1999; and we have been unable to change it ever since. This has dealt a devastating blow to the electoral psychology of majority of potential electorates, who now believe that their votes no longer count and so, do not vote (and that is if they ever registered in the first place).

It has also impaired the overall characteristics of political and economic governance, as well as livelihoods, in Nigeria. So much so that we are almost incapable of distinguishing between good and bad. We have been made to believe that our afflictions are divine. And as we flock the Houses of God, seeking divine restitution, the “beneficiaries” of our collective stupidity, the corrupt politicians and administrators, walk into our treasuries unrestrained for unprecedented loots. They even brawl off the food we left fasting and praying for the country. 

We cannot blame them. They have been assured by our rational/intellectual incapacitation, orchestrated by constitutional but deficient structures, to retain the helms of national affairs. With this assurance, it is tantamount to wastage of national resources to provide basic amenities like drinkable water, good roads, reliable healthcare service etc. to commoners. Why should the incumbent party, assured of quadrennial return to presidency, yield to the entreaties of common Nigerians that gave it such guarantee and stood by it (in religious and ethical divisions)? The effrontery propelled by the progenitors of the PDP that Nigeria shall be “ruled” for at least 50 years by its clans is firmly rooted in this understanding and its engineered “design”. Blame not Jonathan!

I have always argued that the ruling party, PDP is not a strong political movement. Rather, we have no strong oppositions to create the desired equilibrium in the political market place, where the electorates define the effective forces. Largely and practically, since 1999, Nigeria has witnessed a one-party system/governance. There has been no political competitiveness to warrant the delivery of socio-economic to the Nigerian masses. As stated earlier, logically, in a monopolistic political clime like ours, it makes no sense at all to do the masses’ bidding when one can ride on the cheap to presidential Eldorado!

If the current promoters of the APC had, under the auspices of either the All Peoples’ Party (APP) or the Alliance for Democracy (AD), won the presidential race in 1999, and, like PDP, held onto power ever since, they would have fared no better at all. If not worse, they would have produced the same results that PDP is producing today. (Recall the “despotic” Aremo in Ogun State and "goatie" in Oyo State; both of old AD )

So, it is my postulation that the institution of political competitiveness into the centre where power is mostly concentrated, that is, the Presidency, through seemingly electoral Co-ordinations, is the only graceful option to ensuring quality performance of our political administrators on the long-term. Recent happenstances in the Lagos Chapter of the PDP is a pointer the efficacy of this theory. Why would the immediate past Minister of State for Defence be staunchly denied his “birth right”, going by tradition in the party, to the benefit of a "newcomer" and supposedly credible pharmacist of defunct Action Congress (AC)? Political competition!

That chapter of the ruling party has finally realised that to even have half a chance to wrestle power from APC in the Centre of Excellence, the credibility and integrity of the gubernatorial flag-bearer should be seemingly unblemished. I do not believe that those ravenous elements that took this decision in Lagos State have themselves changed or repented. No! They want power at all cost. And the first price is a seemingly “holy” sacrifice of an “unholy” member, like themselves, on the slab of dignity. An episode that is akin to atonement. From Lagos, PDP has commenced, like APC, its own internal cleansing!

This kind of internal reformation is what political competitiveness, which we currently lack at the presidency, brings. 

To answer the question on how to select amongst the available evils at once, it is safe to conclude at this juncture, drawing from the expositions above, that whichever devil that would seem, more than the other, to have introduced political competitiveness at the presidency should be massively elected. Do not forget, I asserted that we have been bedeviled by the lack of credible choices. However, we can help these leechlike tyrants to commence the process of internal restitution by voting them out of power at the next elections. 

Vote PDP out of “Aso Rock”. Not Jonathan! 

Recall, we voted for Jonathan in the first place, not PDP. But since PDP is the clog hindering the smooth running of the national engines, vote it out!

This singular act, if accomplished, would not only be the beginning for our psychological rehabilitation as electorates who are now powerful enough to decide the “evil” that govern us, it also would trigger crossfires that are not mere slanders; but ones that strike at issues and people-centric agenda. If the prized electoral value of every electorate can no longer be incurred by meagre sums of currencies, it would not be long before the benefits of good governance begin to trickle down to the downtrodden (as we have seen in Lagos). And as we leap from on evil to another of lesser menace, in Patrick Obahiagbon’s macabre dance style, we would soon, either transform these devils to adorable angels or confine them to cesspits in the deepest ends of hell.

Nigerians MUST, NOW, vote for Change! Otherwise, the night is only just beginning!